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«Regulatory Impact Analysis of the Proposed Revisions to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ground-Level Ozone (This page intentionally ...»

-- [ Page 1 ] --

Regulatory Impact Analysis of the

Proposed Revisions to the

National Ambient Air Quality Standards for

Ground-Level Ozone

(This page intentionally left blank)

EPA-452/R-07-008

July 2007

Regulatory Impact Analysis of the

Proposed Revisions to the

National Ambient Air Quality Standards

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

Health and Environmental Impact Division

Air Benefit-Cost Group

Research Triangle Park, North Carolina

(This page intentionally left blank) Table of Contents Chapter Page 1 Introduction and Background Synopsis…………………………………………………………………………………1-1

1.1 Background……………………………………………………………………...1-1

1.2 Role of the Regulatory Impact Analysis in the NAAQS Setting Process………1-2 1.2.1 Legislative Roles………………………………………………………..1-2 1.2.2 Role of Statutory and Executive Orders………………………………...1-2 1.2.3 Market Failure or Other Social Purpose………………………………...1-3 1.2.4 Illustrative Nature of the Analysis………………………………………1-4

1.3 Overview and Design of the RIA………………………………………….……1-5 1.3.1 Baseline and Years of Analysis…………………………………………1-5 1.3.2 Control Scenarios Considered in this RIA……………………………...1-6 1.3.3 Evaluating Costs and Benefits…………………………………………..1-6

1.4 Ozone Standard Alternatives Considered……………………………………….1-7

1.5 References………………………………………….…………….……………..1-9 2 Characterizing Ozone and Modeling Tools Used in This Analysis Synopsis…………….…………….…………….…………….…………….…………...2-1

2.1 Ozone Chemistry…………….…………….…………….…………….………..2-1 2.1.1 Temporal Scale…………….…………….…………….…………….….2-2 2.1.2 Geographic Scale and Transport…………….…………….…………….2-2 2.1.3 Effects of Ozone…………….…………….…………….………………2-3

2.2 Sources of Ozone…………….…………….…………….…………….………..2-3

2.3 Modeling Ozone Levels in the Future…………….…………….……………....2-4 2.3.1 Emissions Inventory…………….…………….…………….…………..2-4 2.3.2 CMAQ Model…………….…………….…………….…………….…...2-5

2.4 References…………….…………….…………….…………….………………2-7 3 Modeled Control Strategy: Design and Analytical Results Synopsis…………….…………….…………….…………….…………….…………3-1

3.1 Establishing the Baseline…………….…………….…………….……………...3-2 3.1.1 National Rules…………….…………….…………….…………….…..3-4 3.1.2 Additional Controls…………….…………….…………….…………...3-6 3.1.3 Ozone Levels for Baseline…………….…………….…………….…...3-12

3.2 Developing the Control Strategy Analysis…………….…………….………...3-14 3.2.1 Controls Applied for a 0.070 ppm Standard: Non-EGU and Area Sectors…………….…………….…………….…………….…………….…...3-17 3.2.2 Controls Applied for a 0.070 ppm Standard: EGU Sector…………….3-19 3.2.3 Controls Applied for a 0.070 ppm Standard: Onroad and Nonroad Mobile Sectors…………….…………….…………….…………….…………3.21 3.2.4 Data Quality for this Analysis…………….…………….……………..3-22

3.3 Geographic distribution of Emissions reductions…………….…………….….3-23

3.4 Ozone Design Values for partial attainment…………….…………….……….3-27

3.5 References…………….…………….…………….…………….……………..3-31 Appendix Chapter 3 3a.1 Non-EGU and Area Source Controls Applied in the Baseline and Control Scenarios………………………………………………………………………3a-1 3a.1.1 Non-EGU and Area Source Control Strategies for Ozone NAAQS Proposal………………………………………………………………………..3a-1 3a.1.2 NOx Control Measures for Non-EGU Point Sources…………………..3a-1 3a.1.3 VOC Control Measures for Non-EGU Point Sources……………………...3a-2 3a.1.4 NOx Control Measures for Area Sources……………………

3a.1.5 VOC Control Measures for Area Sources………………………………….3a-2 3a.1.6 Supplemental Controls……………………………………………………..3a-3 3a.2 Mobile Controls/Rules Used in Baseline and Control Scenarios……………3a-11 3a.2.1 Diesel Retrofits and Vehicle Replacement……………………………3a-11 3a.2.2 Implement Continuous Inspection and Maintenance Using Remote Onboard Diagnostics (OBD)…………………………………………………3a-14 3a.2.3 Eliminating Long Duration Truck Idling……………………………...3a-15 3a.2.4 Commuter Programs…………………………………………………..3a-16 3a.2.5 Reduce Gasoline RVP from 7.8 to 7.0 in Remaining Nonattainment Areas………………………………………………………………………….3a-18 3a.2.6 Application order for Onroad and Nonroad Mobile Controls…………3a-18 3a.3 EGU Controls Used in the Control Strategy…………………………………3a-19 3a.4 Emissions Reductions by Sector……………………………………………...3a-22 3a.5 Change in Ozone Concentrations between Baseline and Post-0.070 ppm Control Strategy Modeling.…...……………………………………………………….3a.27 4 Approach for Estimating Reductions for Full Attainment Scenario Synopsis…………….…………………………………………………………………...4-1





4.1 Development of Air Quality Impact Ratios for Determination of Extrapolated Costs…………….…………….…………….…………….…………….………4-1 4.1.1 Approach A: Use of Sensitivity Modeling of Local Emissions Reductions…………….…………….…………….…………….……………....4-1 4.1.2 Approach B: Use of 2020 Baseline and RIA Control Scenario………...4-3

4.2 Results from Impact Ratio Analyses……

4.3 Determination of Extrapolated Tons Control Areas…………………………….4-7

4.4 Selection of Air Quality Goal for this analysis………….……………….……...4-9

4.5 National 2020 Estimates of Additional Emissions Reductions Needed to Meet Four Potential Air Quality Targets…………………………………….4-12

4.6 Estimates of Additional Tons Needed for Four Potential Air Quality Targets (California Only, Post-2020 Attainment)……………………………………...4-16 5 Cost Estimates Synopsis………….……………….……………….……………….……………….…...5-1

5.1 Modeled Controls………….……………….……………….……………….….5.2 5.1.1 Sector Methodology. ………….……………….……………….………...5-2 5.1.1.1 Non-EGU Point and Area Sources: AirControlNet………….….5-2 5.1.1.2 EGU Sources: the Integrated Planning Model………….………5-3 5.1.1.3 Onroad and Nonroad Mobil Sources: MOBILE Model………...5-4 5.1.2 Known Controls- Cost by Sector………….……………….……………5-4 5.1.3 Limitations and Uncertainties Associated with Engineering Cost Estimates………….……………….……………….……………….…………...5-6

5.2 Extrapolated Costs………….……………….……………….………………….5-7 5.2.1 Increasing Marginal Cost Methodology………….……………….…….5-9 5.2.1.1 Marginal Cost Regions………….……………….……………...5-9 5.2.1.2 Derivation of the Marginal Cost Slopes………….……………5-11 5.2.1.3 Calculating Extrapolated Costs using Marginal Cost Approach………….……………….……………….……………….…5-12 5.2.2 Fixed Cost per Ton Values………….……………….………………...5-12 5.2.3 Results………….……………….……………….……………….……5-13

5.3 Summary of Costs………….……………….……………….………………...5-19

5.4 Technology Innovation and Regulatory Cost Estimates………….…………...5-20 5.4.1 Examples of Technological Advances in Pollution Control…………..5-22 5.4.2 Influence on Regulatory Cost Estimates………….……………….…..5-23

5.5 References………….……………….……………….……………….………..5-26 Appendix Chapter 5 5a.1 Cost Information for Non-EGU and area sources……………………………...5a.1 5a.2 Cost Information for EGU sources…………………………………………….5a-2 5a.3 Cost information for Onroad and Nonroad Mobile Sources…………………...5a-3 6 Incremental Benefits of Attaining Alternative Ozone Standards Relative to the Current 8-hour Standard (0.08 ppm) Synopsis………….……………….……………….……………….……………….…...6-1

6.1 Background………….……………….……………….……………….………...6-3

6.2 Characterizing Uncertainty: Moving Toward a Probabilistic Framework for Benefits Assessment………….……………….……………….……………….……….6-5

6.3 Health Impact Functions………….……………….……………….……………6-6 6.3.1 Potentially Affected Populations………….……………….……………6-7 6.3.2 Effect Estimate Sources………….……………….……………….…….6-7 6.3.2.1 Premature Mortality Effects Estimates………….……………..6-13 6.3.2.2 Respiratory Hospital Admissions Effect Estimates……………6-14 6.3.2.3 Asthma-Related Emergency Room Visits Effect Estimates…...6-15 6.3.2.4 Minor Restricted Activity Days Effect Estimates………….….6-16 6.3.2.5 School Absences Effect Estimate………….……………….….6-16 6.3.2.6 Worker Productivity………….……………….……………….6-17 6.3.2.7 Visibility Benefits………….……………….……………….....6-17 6.3.2.8 Other Unquantified Effects…………………………………….6-17 6.3.2.8.1 Direct Ozone Effects on Vegetation…………………6-17 6.3.2.8.2 Nitrogen Deposition…………………………………6-18 6.3.2.8.3 Ultraviolet Radiation………………………………...6-19 6.3.2.8.4 Climate Implications of Tropospheric Ozone……….6-21 6.3.3 Baseline Incidence Rates………….……………….……………….…6-22

6.4 Economic Values for Health Outcomes………….……………….…………...6-24 6.4.1 Mortality Valuation………….……………….………………………..6-25 6.4.2 Hospital Admissions Valuation……….………….………….………...6-25 6.4.3 Asthma-Related Emergency Room Visits Valuation……….…………6-25 6.4.4 Minor Restricted Activity Days Valuation……….………….………...6-25 6.4.5 School Absences……….………….………….………….………….…6-26

6.5 Results and Implications……….………….………….………….………….…6-31 6.5.1 Glidepath Incidence and Valuation Estimates for 0.065 ppm and

0.075 ppm Alternatives……….………….………….………….………….…..6-31 6.5.2 PM2.5 Co-Benefits Estimates……….………….………….…………...6-32 6.5.3 PM2.5 Co-Benefits Resulting from Attainment of 0.070 ppm incremental to 0.08 ppm……….………….………….………….………….…6-74 6.5.4 Estimate of Full Attainment Benefits……….………….………….…..6-77 6.5.5 Discussion of Results and Uncertainties……….………….…………..6-98 6.5.6 Summary of Total Benefits……….………….………….……………6-101

6.6 References……….………….………….………….………….………….…..6-104 Appendix Chapter 6 6a Additional Benefits Information Summary……………………………………………………………………….6a-1 6a.1 Developing an air quality estimate of full attainment with the alternative ozone standards……….………….………….………….………….….6a-1 6a.2 Partial Attainment PM2.5 Incidence and Valuation Estimates……….…6a-2 6b Health-Based Cost-Effectiveness of Reductions in Ambient PM2.5 Associated with Illustrative Ozone NAAQS 0.070ppm Attainment Strategy 6b.1 Summary……….………….………….………….………….…………6b-1 6b.2 Introduction……….………….………….………….………….……...6b-4 6b.3 Effectiveness Measures……….………….………….………….……..6b-7 6b.4 Changes in Premature Death, Life Years, and Quality of Life………...6b-9 6b.4.1 Calculating Reductions in Premature Deaths………………...6b-10 6b.4.2 Calculating Changes in Life Years from Direct Reductions in PM2.5-Related Mortality Risk………………………………………...6b-11 6b.4.2.1 Should Life Years Gained Be Adjusted for Initial Health Status?



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